Yazar "Berument, M. Hakan" seçeneğine göre listele

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    Credit channel and capital flows: A macroprudential policy tool? Evidence from Turkey
    (Walter de Gruyter GmbH, 2016) Varlık, Serdar; Berument, M. Hakan
    Rapid credit growth induced by sudden capital inflows may negatively affect a country's economic performance, with the resulting outflows turning into a financial crisis. The purpose of this study is to determine whether controlling the credit channel of monetary policy could be used as a macroprudential tool to suppress the effects of sudden capital inflows on economic performance for small open economies like Turkey. In this paper, using the Vector Autoregression methodology employed by (Bernanke, S. B., M. Gertler, and M. Watson. 1997. "Systematic Monetary Policy and the Effects of Oil Price Shocks." Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 1: 91-157), we investigate whether shutting down the credit channel helps reduce the effects of capital inflows. Indeed, empirical evidence from Turkey shows that doing so decreases the effects of capital inflows on imports and industrial production, but further decreases interest rate and prices and further appreciates the domestic currency. Therefore, it may be prudent to support credit control with additional policy tools to prevent a further decrease in interest rate and prices and a further appreciation of the domestic currency. © 2016 by De Gruyter 2016.
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    Duration of Global Financial Cycles
    (Elsevier, 2020) Akdi, Yılmaz; Varlık, Serdar; Berument, M. Hakan
    The duration of Global Financial Cycles (GFCs) have a role in the global financial environment which is shaped by the fluctuations in short-term capital flows, changes in monetary conditions in the center economies and co-movement in asset prices. The duration of GFCs for a set of global financial data - the VIX index, the TED spread and the 3-Month LIBOR-Effective Federal Funds Rate - are analyzed by using a periodogram-based method. Our results suggest that there is a 43-month common cycle for these three series. We obtain eight different cycle periods for 43-month common cycles from our sample period. (C) 2020 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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    Monetary policy under a multiple-tool environment
    (Wiley, 2020) Varlik, Serdar; Berument, M. Hakan
    Since the 2008 global financial crisis, central banks have been using a new set of policy tools in addition to conventional tools (such as short-term interest rates) to conduct monetary policy. This paper employs a methodology that captures 25 of these tools with a limited number of factors for Turkey. Due to a set of factors such as the high volatility of inflation, market-friendly financial architecture and its size, Turkey provides a unique environment to capture these factors and their effects on economic performance. The three factors identified here can be categorized as interest rate, central bank foreign exchange position and liquidity. The empirical evidence reveals that these three factors affect all the economic-state variables considered in the paper in different directions and magnitudes.
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    Multiple policy interest rates and economic performance in a multiple monetary-policy-tool environment
    (Elsevier Inc., 2017) Varlık, Serdar; Berument, M. Hakan
    This paper assesses the individual effects on economic performance of different monetary policy interest rates for a central bank. To measure these effects, we employ an extension of existing Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressive (FAVAR) models, such that the number of monetary policy variables can be captured with a few unobservable factors, as well as economic state variables with other unobservable factors. The empirical evidence from Turkey suggests that the four interest rates we consider as policy tools for the central bank affect economic state variables in different magnitudes. Thus, selecting different policy tools provides an environment that allows determining the effects of each tool for differentiated economic outcomes. © 2017 Elsevier Inc.
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    Oil price shocks and the composition of current account balance
    (2020) Varlık, Serdar; Berument, M. Hakan
    It is a well-established regularity that permanent oil price shocks do not have a permanent effect on the current account deficit. This requires that sub-components of the current account or trade balance will make the necessary adjustments to accommodate the higher energy bill of a country triggered by permanent crude oil price increases. Empirical evidence gathered from Turkey reveals that, in the long run, balancing the current account is provided by a permanent increase in the net exports of Agricultural Production, Maintenance and Repair Services, Travel, Construction, Financial Services, Compensation of Employees, and Goods under Merchanting (non-tradable components of the current account balance); and a permanent decrease in the net exports of Mining, Fishery, Other Goods for BEC Classification, Investment Income, Manufacturing Services on Physical Inputs Owned by Others, and Transport balances mostly in sectors that use energy heavily in production. All these responses are found to be statistically significant in the more than 24 periods we consider in this study.
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    Oil price shocks and the composition of current account balance
    (Central Bank Republic Turkey, 2020) Varlik, Serdar; Berument, M. Hakan
    It is a well-established regularity that permanent oil price shocks do not have a permanent effect on the current account deficit. This requires that sub-components of the current account or trade balance will make the necessary adjustments to accommodate the higher energy bill of a country triggered by permanent crude oil price increases. Empirical evidence gathered from Turkey reveals that, in the long run, balancing the current account is provided by a permanent increase in the net exports of Agricultural Production, Maintenance and Repair Services, Travel, Construction, Financial Services, Compensation of Employees, and Goods under Merchanting (non-tradable components of the current account balance); and a permanent decrease in the net exports of Mining, Fishery, Other Goods for BEC Classification, Investment Income, Manufacturing Services on Physical Inputs Owned by Others, and Transport balances mostly in sectors that use energy heavily in production. All these responses are found to be statistically significant in the more than 24 periods we consider in this study. (c) 2020 Central Bank of The Republic of Turkey. Production and hosting by Elsevier B.V.
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    The effect of output growth volatility on output growth: empirical evidence from Turkey
    (Routledge, 2019) Ülke, Volkan; Varlık, Serdar; Berument, M. Hakan
    This article assesses the effect of output growth volatility on output growth within a stochastic-volatility-in-mean model with a time-varying framework for an open small economy: Turkey. Until now, the empirical evidence on industrial production mainly reveals that this relationship is negative. However, in further examining different sectors and sub-sectors of industrial production, we find the sign of the relationship changes depending on the sector. Moreover, there is limited evidence that the sign of the relationship changes over time. Thus, the evidence reveals that the nature of the output growth volatility–output growth relationship is not uniform across sectors. © 2018, © 2018 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.
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    The time-varying effect of inflation uncertainty on inflation for Turkey
    (Routledge, 2017) Varlık, Serdar; Ülke, Volkan; Berument, M. Hakan
    We investigate the effect of inflation uncertainty on inflation from January 1982 through March 2016 for Turkey by using the Stochastic Volatility in Mean model with time-varying parameters. Our empirical evidence from consumer price index (CPI) inflation suggests that the observed positive relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty is not robust. This positive relationship diminishes after 2002. This finding is valid for all five subcomponents of CPI inflation; however, for Health Services, Transportation Services, and Recreational and Cultural Services, an inflation-positive association is reported after 2010. © 2016 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.