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Öğe Determination of recent tectonic deformations in the vicinity of Adana-Osmaniye-Hatay-Gaziantep triple junction region by half-space modeling(Centre Mersenne Pour Ldition Scientifique Ouverte, 2020) Yildiz, Selim Serhan; Ozkan, Ali; Yavasoglu, Hasan Hakan; Masson, Frederic; Tiryakioglu, Ibrahim; Alkan, Mehmet Nurullah; Bilgi, SerdarRecent earthquakes on the East Anatolian Fault Zone (EAFZ) and its surroundings in the Eastern Mediterranean region reveal a potential seismic hazard. It is thus needed to constrain deformations within tectonically active zones and clarify kinematics of the triple junction near Adana, Osmaniye, Hatay, and Gaziantep provinces. To understand strain accumulations and interseismic patterns of these active zones, one of the most popular geodetic methods was applied. Slip rates derived from Global Positioning System (GPS) observations by half-space modeling lead us to predict possible magnitudes and even probable locations of future destructive earthquakes. In this context, we form a region-specific GPS network consisting of both campaign observation sites and permanent stations to monitor strain accumulations across major active faults and investigate fault kinematics in detail. The campaign GPS data sets acquired in 2009, 2010, 2011, and 2019 were merged with data from different local permanent GPS networks for an integrated analysis of the determination of recent tectonic deformations. The TDEFNODE software was used to construct a kinematic model in an elastic and homogeneous half-space. The modeling approach needs inputs such as block and fault geometries, GPS site velocities, and locking depth assumptions. Our kinematic model indicates that an almost purely sinistral strike-slip rate of 7.5 mm/yr without any significant normal or reverse component is dominant on the main branch of the EAFZ. This estimated slip rate supports a prediction for a magnitude margin of 7.2-7.6 for the next probable large earthquake on the Turkoglu-Golbasi segment. The Karatas-Osmaniye Fault has a 3.4 mm/yr dextral strike-slip rate together with a reverse-slip rate of 3.1 mm/yr, which corresponds to a possible magnitude of 6.8-7.1 for an earthquake on the southwest end of the East Anatolian Fault. The Karasu Fault extends from the Turkoglu Triple Junction on the EAFZ in the north to the Hatay Triple Junction in the south. This critical fault segment has a sinistral 4.4-5.4 mm/yr slip rate with a normal component slip rate of 3.0 mm/yr, supporting earthquake prediction with a possible magnitude of 6.8-7.2. As a result, the determination of such kinematic indications in active tectonic zones by GPS observations plays a key role in seismic hazard analysis for the Eastern Mediterranean region.Öğe Monitoring aseismic creep trends in the Ismetpasa and Destek segments throughout the North Anatolian Fault (NAF) with a large-scale GPS network(Copernicus Gesellschaft Mbh, 2020) Yavasoglu, Hasan Hakan; Alkan, Mehmet Nurullah; Bilgi, Serdar; Alkan, OykuThe North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ) is an intersection area between the Anatolian and Eurasian plates. The Arabian Plate, which squeezes the Anatolian Plate from the south between the Eurasian Plate and itself, is also responsible for this formation. This tectonic motion causes the Anatolian Plate to move westwards with almost a 20 mm yr(-1) velocity, which has caused destructive earthquakes in history. Block boundaries that form the faults are generally locked to the bottom of the seismogenic layer because of the friction between blocks and are responsible for these discharges. However, there are also some unique events observed around the world, which may cause partially or fully free-slipping faults. This phenomenon is called aseismic creep and may occur through the entire seismogenic zone or at least to some depths. Additionally, it is a rare event in the world located in two reported segments along the North Anatolian Fault (NAF), which are Ismetpasa and Destek. In this study, we established GPS networks covering those segments and made three campaigns between 2014 and 2016. Considering the long-term geodetic movements of the blocks (Anatolian and Eurasian plates), surface velocities and fault parameters are calculated. The results of the model indicate that aseismic creep still continues with rates of 13.2 similar to 3.3 mm yr(-1) at Ismetpasa and 9.6 similar to 3.1 mm yr(-1) at Destek. Additionally, aseismic creep behavior is limited to some depths and decays linearly to the bottom of the seismogenic layer at both segments. This study suggests that this aseismic creep behavior will not prevent medium- to large-scale earthquakes in the long term.