Döviz kuru oynaklığının Türkiye’nin tarımsal dış ticaretine etkisi
Yükleniyor...
Dosyalar
Tarih
2017
Yazarlar
Dergi Başlığı
Dergi ISSN
Cilt Başlığı
Yayıncı
Türk Bilim ve Teknoloji
Erişim Hakkı
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
Özet
Bu çalışmada reel efektif döviz kurunun (RDK) ve reel efektif döviz kur oynaklığının (RDKU) Türkiye'nin tarımsal dış ticareti üzerine etkisi araştırılmıştır. Çalışmada, Türkiye'nin tarımsal dış ticaretindeki 25 önemli ülke ile 1990-2012 periyodunda panel veri analizleri kullanılmıştır. RDKU'yu elde etmek için IGARCH modeli uygulanmıştır. Bu çalışmada RDK ve RDKU Türkiye'nin tarımsal dış ticaretine etkisi, hem ülke bazında hem de panel olarak FMOLS modeli ile incelenmiştir. FMOLS modeli sonuçlarına göre; RDK'nın %1 artması durumunda Türkiye'nin tarımsal ithalatı %7,61, tarımsal ihracatın ise %2,24 artış gösterdiği tespit edilmiştir. RDKU'nun %1 artması durumunda, tarımsal ithalatın %18,83 azaldığı belirlenmiştir. Öte yandan tarımsal ihracat ve reel efektif döviz kur oynaklığı arasında anlamlı bir ilişkiye rastlanılmamıştır. Sonuç itibariyle mevcut sektörel problemler ve reel efektif döviz kuru ve oynaklığının Türkiye'nin tarımsal dış ticaretinde dengesizliğe yol açtığı söylenebilir. Tarımsal üreticiler ve sanayiciler döviz kuru oynaklığından çoğu zaman olumsuz etkilenmektedirler. Bu sebeplerden dolayı, tarımsal üretici ve sanayiciler için koruyucu tedbirlerin alınması önem arz etmektedir.
In this study, impact of the real effective exchange rate (REER) and its volatility (REERV) on Turkey's agricultural foreign trade was investigated. 25importantcountries in agricultural trade of Turkey and 1990-2012 periods were examined, and panel data analysis was used in this research. IGARCH model was applied to obtain for the REERV. Influence of the REER and REERV on Turkey's agricultural trade was analyzed whit FMOLS model both individual country and groups panel. According to the results of FMOLS model; It was determined that Turkey agricultural import (7.61%) and export (2.24%) were increased when the REER was risen about 1%. The agricultural import was decreased 18.83% in case the REERV was increased 1%. On the other hand, when the REERV was increased around 1%, there was no significantly relationship between agricultural export and REERV. As a result, it can be stated that REER and REERV were caused an imbalance on Turkey's agricultural foreign trade. Agricultural producers and industrialists are often adversely affected by the REERV. For these reasons, it is important to take protective measures for them.
In this study, impact of the real effective exchange rate (REER) and its volatility (REERV) on Turkey's agricultural foreign trade was investigated. 25importantcountries in agricultural trade of Turkey and 1990-2012 periods were examined, and panel data analysis was used in this research. IGARCH model was applied to obtain for the REERV. Influence of the REER and REERV on Turkey's agricultural trade was analyzed whit FMOLS model both individual country and groups panel. According to the results of FMOLS model; It was determined that Turkey agricultural import (7.61%) and export (2.24%) were increased when the REER was risen about 1%. The agricultural import was decreased 18.83% in case the REERV was increased 1%. On the other hand, when the REERV was increased around 1%, there was no significantly relationship between agricultural export and REERV. As a result, it can be stated that REER and REERV were caused an imbalance on Turkey's agricultural foreign trade. Agricultural producers and industrialists are often adversely affected by the REERV. For these reasons, it is important to take protective measures for them.
Açıklama
research
Anahtar Kelimeler
Panel Veri Analizi, Döviz Kuru, Tarımsal Dış Ticaret, Oynaklık, FMOLS, Panel Data Analysis, Exchange Rate, Agricultural Foreign Trade, Volatility
Kaynak
Türk Tarım - Gıda Bilim ve Teknoloji Dergisi
WoS Q Değeri
Scopus Q Değeri
Cilt
5
Sayı
6
Künye
Karakaş, G., Erdal, G. (2017). Döviz kuru oynaklığının Türkiye’nin tarımsal dış ticaretine etkisi. Türk Tarım - Gıda Bilim ve Teknoloji Dergisi, 5(6), 668-675.
